Wales is falling further behind the rest of the United Kingdom in international school performance tests, with the latest results painting a worrying picture for education standards across the nation.
The Programme for International Student Assessment, better known as PISA, tests 15-year-olds in maths, reading and science every three years across dozens of countries. The latest results show Wales continuing on what the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development describes as a “downward trend”, widening the gap between Welsh pupils and their counterparts in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Wales has consistently sat at the bottom of the UK table in these tests for well over a decade, but the latest figures suggest the situation is getting worse rather than better, despite years of promises from Welsh Government to turn things around.
The results will make uncomfortable reading for Education Minister in Cardiff Bay. Significant investment has been poured into a curriculum overhaul in recent years, with Wales rolling out its new Curriculum for Wales amid much fanfare. That curriculum was designed to move away from rote learning and focus more on broader skills and wellbeing. Critics have long argued, however, that the reforms came at the cost of core academic rigour, particularly in maths and literacy.
In maths, Welsh pupils are scoring notably lower than the OECD average, and the gap to English pupils continues to stretch. Reading scores tell a similar story. Science results are no more encouraging.
Teachers and school leaders across Wales have pointed to a range of pressures bearing down on the system. Recruitment and retention of qualified teachers, particularly in subjects like maths and physics, has been a persistent problem. Schools in rural areas face particular challenges attracting staff, while schools in more deprived communities are dealing with the knock-on effects of years of poverty and underfunding.
The Welsh Government has previously argued that direct comparisons between Wales and other UK nations are overly simplistic, pointing out that Wales has higher levels of deprivation than many parts of England and that its school system operates under different pressures. There is some truth to that argument, but critics say it has become a convenient excuse for a lack of genuine progress.
Parent groups have reacted with frustration to the latest figures. Many feel that concerns about falling standards have been raised repeatedly over the years only to be met with reassurances that reforms take time to bed in. That patience is wearing thin.
Opposition politicians at the Senedd were quick to respond, calling the results a damning verdict on years of Labour-led education policy in Wales. The Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru both called for urgent action, with some demanding an independent review of how education funding is being spent and whether the new curriculum is actually delivering results.
What makes the situation particularly stark is the broader international context. Countries like Estonia and Singapore have shown that strong outcomes are achievable even with tighter budgets, through a focus on teacher quality, clear curriculum standards and strong school leadership. Education experts have repeatedly urged Wales to look at what those high-performing systems are doing differently.
For pupils currently sitting in Welsh classrooms, the long-term consequences of underperformance in core subjects are real. Weaker literacy and numeracy skills at 15 feed directly into lower attainment at GCSE and A-level, reduced university participation rates and narrower career prospects. Wales already has lower rates of higher education participation compared to England, and the cycle is difficult to break.
The Welsh Government is expected to respond to the findings in the coming days, likely pointing to the new curriculum as a long-term investment that will take time to show results. Whether that argument will satisfy parents, teachers and employers who are watching the rankings slide is another matter entirely.
What is clear is that Wales cannot afford to keep accepting decline as the norm. With the next PISA results due in another three years, the clock is already ticking on whether any meaningful change can be delivered in time to show up in the data.